IPC forecast points to rising Congo food insecurity

More than 28 million people in the Democratic Republic of the Congo are not getting enough to eat, and that figure is expected to rise in the coming months, according to the latest IPC global food security alert as reported by UN News on 30 October 2026.

The IPC is a UN-backed platform that uses a five-phase scale to classify the severity of food insecurity, with level 5 being famine. That design limits the claim: the alert assigns people to phases; it does not, by itself, declare famine.

In that UN News account of the IPC alert, roughly 28.8 million people, or 23 percent of the population analyzed, are forecast to experience high levels of acute food insecurity, IPC Phase 3 or above, through December 2026. More than 3.6 million people within that Phase 3 or above group, three percent of the analyzed population, are facing emergency conditions, or IPC Phase 4, in the same reading. The alert covers September 2026 through next June and was published against the backdrop of the record Ebola outbreak that is about to enter a sixth month, with UN News stating a count of more than 10,000 cases as of that week.

The crisis first emerged in Ituri province in the volatile eastern region, where armed groups have terrorized the population for decades, and has now spread to eight provinces nationwide, according to the same report. While the national proportion of the population in Phase 3 or above is only marginally higher than in the previous analysis, the IPC alert finds that conditions have deteriorated more markedly in the northeastern and eastern provinces. North Kivu, South Kivu and Ituri remain the hardest-hit provinces, with 10.4 million people in Phase 3 or above in the IPC figures reported by UN News, while four territories within them—Djugu, Fizi, Shabunda and Walungu—are classified in Phase 4. Among those most affected are displaced persons, returnees, refugees and poor households.

In eastern DRC, conflict and violence continue to drive displacement, disrupt livelihoods and restrict access to food and markets, the alert finds in the UN News summary. A rapidly expanding Ebola outbreak, recurrent disease epidemics, rising food and fuel prices, and the impacts of floods and other climate shocks are compounding vulnerabilities, leaving millions of people with only limited means to guard against hunger. The IPC expects food security to worsen slightly from January to June, with some 30.3 million people projected to face Phase 3 or above in that forecast, including 4.2 million among them who are likely to face Phase 4, under continued conflict and displacement, the spread of Ebola, anticipated El Niño effects including flooding that could disrupt agricultural production and market access, rising food, fuel and agricultural input prices, and declining humanitarian assistance.