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Fuel prices rose far more in Nigeria and Myanmar than in Ireland and Sweden after Hormuz closure
A new report from UNCTAD, the UN trade and development agency, says developing economies are paying the heaviest price at the pump, according to UN News, which reported on the findings on 4 November 2026.
In this story
- The Strait of Hormuz closed in February, and fuel prices have since risen by very different amounts around the world.
- The closure cut off a route that normally carries a fifth of the world's oil.
- UNCTAD noted that economies that depend heavily on imported fuel are particularly exposed, because they must spend more to meet their energy needs.
- The futures-market outlook is a market signal rather than a certainty, and the course of the conflict and the talks will decide whether it holds.
The Strait of Hormuz closed in February, and fuel prices have since risen by very different amounts around the world. A new report from UNCTAD, the UN trade and development agency, says developing economies are paying the heaviest price at the pump, according to UN News, which reported on the findings on 4 November 2026.
UN News, a secondary account of the UNCTAD report, gives several country comparisons for the period between late February and the end of August. Diesel prices in Nigeria rose by about 83 per cent, against nine per cent in Ireland. Gasoline rose by about 51 per cent in Myanmar and three per cent in Sweden. These are reported changes in retail fuel prices over that period.
Local conditions explain part of the gap. Taxes, subsidies, domestic pricing rules and exchange rates all shape what people end up paying.
The global benchmark moved sharply as well. Brent crude, the most widely used benchmark, rose from around $70 a barrel in January to over $120 in March, according to the UN News account. The closure cut off a route that normally carries a fifth of the world's oil. Prices eased between April and June while diplomatic talks progressed, then climbed again when negotiations collapsed and fighting resumed. Futures markets suggest oil will stay expensive until the end of the year, which would keep fuel and transport bills high for businesses and households.
The effects reach people who never buy fuel directly. Higher diesel prices make it more costly to transport goods, which raises their prices. UN News also cited earlier research on developing economies, which found that a 25 cent rise in fuel prices per litre could reduce household purchasing power by more than five percent on average.
UNCTAD noted that economies that depend heavily on imported fuel are particularly exposed, because they must spend more to meet their energy needs. In 2023, net fuel imports, meaning spending on fuel imports minus earnings from fuel exports, amounted to a quarter of Cabo Verde's GDP and nearly a fifth of Lebanon's. A higher fuel bill leaves less money for food, medicines and equipment. UNCTAD stressed that governments already facing budget pressure have less room to protect households from rising costs.
The report calls for more varied energy supplies and investment in affordable renewables to reduce exposure to future shocks. UNCTAD said wind and solar sources are not vulnerable to geopolitical shocks and cannot be depleted. It also said that in over 90 per cent of cases, renewables are less expensive than the cheapest new fossil fuel alternatives.
The futures-market outlook is a market signal rather than a certainty, and the course of the conflict and the talks will decide whether it holds.